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Your edge = Your Prob ā Market Price
$
Raw Kelly f*
ā
Optimal fraction
Adjusted Kelly
ā
Uncertainty-adjusted
Position Size
ā
Recommended bet
Your Edge
ā
p_you ā p_market
Median MDD
ā
Max drawdown (50th %ile)
MDD 95th %ile
ā
Worst-case drawdown
Monte Carlo Equity Curves
10,000 simulationsMaximum Drawdown Distribution
HistogramMarket Price History
From Polymarketš Formula Reference
Kelly Criterion
f* = (p Ć b ā q) / b
p = your prob, q = 1āp, b = odds = (1/market_price) ā 1
Monte Carlo Resampling
R(j) = {r1j, r2j, ..., rmj}
N=10,000 paths, resampled with replacement
Maximum Drawdown
MDD = min(Wt ā maxsā¤t Ws)
Worst peak-to-trough decline per path
Uncertainty-Adjusted Kelly
fadj = f* Ć (1 ā CVedge)
CV = Ļedge / Ī¼edge from bootstrap